Two Stanley Cup rings. Over 900 regular season games played. Over 500 points. Seven 20+ goal seasons. Another 100 playoff games. Over 50 playoff points. Connections to the front office.

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On paper, it makes all the sense in the world that Brandon Saad — whose tenure with the St. Louis Blues is coming to an abrupt end hours after the time this article goes live with his contract being terminated — will sign with the Edmonton Oilers.
Stan Bowman selected him 43rd overall in the 2011 draft, giving Saad a launch point with the Chicago Blackhawks. He would debut with the team in 2012-13, scoring 10 goals and 27 points in 46 games, and another goal and six points in all 23 playoff games that ended with the Blackhawks winning their second Stanley Cup in four years. He&#8217;d win another two years later, before being shipped to the Columbus Blue Jackets in a significant deal bringing back Artem Anisimov, only to return another two years later in a deal that sent Artemi Panarin the other way.
Saad established himself throughout his career as a two-way force to be reckoned with: a consistent scorer who would never lead the team in points but would touch all facets of the game, chipping in on both special teams.
After his second stint in Chicago, one which would last three years, he spent a season in Colorado, before making St. Louis his home for the last three and a half seasons. Now, at 32-years-old in a season which he&#8217;s on pace for offensive numbers near career lows, racking up seven goals and 16 points through 43 games.
Saad was placed on waivers, Tuesday, clearing Wednesday, and in short order, it was announced he would be getting placed on unconditional waivers for the purpose of termination. With no desire to play in the American Hockey League, Saad forfeited the final year and a half of a five-year deal paying him $5.4-million per year. There was no team willing to eat the remaining money on his deal in claiming him on waivers, but now, he&#8217;ll have numerous teams vying for his services at a significantly lower dollar amount. First, however, he&#8217;ll go through unconditional waivers Thursday and clear Friday, then free to sign with any team.
<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6098294/2025/01/29/blues-brandon-saad-contract-nhl-free-agent/">The Athletic&#8217;s Jeremy Rutherford</a> listed the Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars all as teams, but given his history with Bowman, a sure desire for another deep cup run, the Oilers getting to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, and the fact the team is looking to add, it seems like Saad is destined to don the Blue and Orange.
But does it make sense for the team?
Starting from the top, Saad&#8217;s individual game isn&#8217;t where it once was. His aforementioned offensive numbers have dipped at five-on-five to .78 goals per hour, .66 assists per hour and 1.44 points per hour across 541 minutes, or 12:35 per game. Those metrics, among 13 Oilers forwards to play this season not named Noah Philp or Drake Caggiula, would rank seventh, 10th and tied for ninth, respectively.
He&#8217;s still shooting the puck lots, taking 7.87 shots on goal per hour, and generating quality looks with them, notching .83 individual expected goals per hour, numbers which would rank fourth and sixth among the aforementioned forwards. Motivated to prove the Blues wrong, if he&#8217;s able to keep those numbers up or even improve on them to higher rates as he had even as recently as last year, he would be a boost to the Oilers&#8217; middle-six.
<figure id="attachment_168817" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-168817" style="width: 1024px" class="wp-caption aligncenter"><img loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-large wp-image-168817" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" srcset="https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-300x200.jpg 300w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-768x512.jpg 768w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-2048x1365.jpg 2048w" sizes="(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-168817" class="wp-caption-text">Jan 3, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Blues left wing Brandon Saad (20) is congratulated by teammates after scoring his third goal for a hat trick against the Ottawa Senators during the third period at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images</figcaption></figure>
His underlying metrics don&#8217;t jump off the table. The Blues have struggled to control the shot attempt share, scoring chance share, expected goal share and most importantly, the actual goal share, with him on the ice throughout his whole tenure in St. Louis at five-on-five. He&#8217;s also been bit by bad luck this season, specifically, as the Blues shot just 7.39 percent with him on the ice and their goaltenders saved only 88.97 percent of the shots they faced. A 96.4 PDO is well below the league average 100.
His five-on-five linemates haven&#8217;t been poor, as he&#8217;s spent 195 minutes with Brayden Schenn, 160 with Robert Thomas, 154 with Jake Neighbours, 129 with Jordan Kyrou and 107 with Pavel Buchnevich as his five most common linemates this season. The problem, however, is each of these players have seen stronger shot attempt share, scoring chance share, expected goal share and actual goal share numbers away from Saad, than with him, beyond he and Buchnevich&#8217;s expected goal share. Simply put: he&#8217;s been a drag on his teammates this year.
Even looking back to last year, that wasn&#8217;t the case, where more often than not, his five most common linemates had worse goal, expected goal and scoring chance numbers away from him than with him. Simply put: he was helping make his teammates better as recent as last year.
His Hockey Viz profile, meanwhile, suggests his game is actually better this year than last. In 2023-24 he had a -2.4 sG rating, a metric used to determine a players overall value and where their contributions slot him on the depth chart. That number had him as a low-end third-liner, while this year, it&#8217;s at -1.9, closer to a high-end third-liner. He&#8217;s driving play this season at a one percent rate above league average, but his defensive contributions are seven percent below league average this season, according to Hockey Viz.
The Oilers potentially dipping into the Blues&#8217; well wouldn&#8217;t be the first time they did so this year, either, having claimed Kasperi Kapanen on waivers earlier in the season. He&#8217;s been a solid, but unspectacular addition, who has chipped in goals and points at a higher rate than he did last year.
Kapanen and Saad aren&#8217;t strangers to each other, either, having played 235 unspectacular minutes together at five-on-five. Without diving into the weeds, if the Oilers do sign Saad, they shouldn&#8217;t see the ice together.
Saad doesn&#8217;t have top-end speed to burn, ranking in the 53rd percentile, but he does have some jump in his step, ranking in the 77th percentile for speed bursts this season, according to NHL Edge. However, the Oilers as a whole rank in the 93rd and 96th percentile for each, respectively, so it&#8217;s not as if they need more of it.
Bringing in Saad wouldn&#8217;t be the worst option for the Oilers. There&#8217;s the undeniable veteran element to him that this team clearly values, and much like with the signing of John Klingberg, it could offer a test run leading up to the March 7th trade deadline. It gives them a chance to see if he can find his game again, and if the answer is a no, time to find a suitable replacement.
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Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QX_QCiZyIo&amp;list=PLRSWOpthKmdtmFOKQDd7TQdTU2KSKXYvX">DFO DFS Report</a>. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at <a href="http://www.x.com/zjlaing">@zjlaing</a>, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.
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Two Stanley Cup rings. Over 900 regular season games played. Over 500 points. Seven 20+ goal seasons. Another 100 playoff games. Over 50 playoff points. Connections to the front office.


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On paper, it makes all the sense in the world that Brandon Saad — whose tenure with the St. Louis Blues is coming to an abrupt end hours after the time this article goes live with his contract being terminated — will sign with the Edmonton Oilers.

Stan Bowman selected him 43rd overall in the 2011 draft, giving Saad a launch point with the Chicago Blackhawks. He would debut with the team in 2012-13, scoring 10 goals and 27 points in 46 games, and another goal and six points in all 23 playoff games that ended with the Blackhawks winning their second Stanley Cup in four years. He'd win another two years later, before being shipped to the Columbus Blue Jackets in a significant deal bringing back Artem Anisimov, only to return another two years later in a deal that sent Artemi Panarin the other way.

Saad established himself throughout his career as a two-way force to be reckoned with: a consistent scorer who would never lead the team in points but would touch all facets of the game, chipping in on both special teams.

After his second stint in Chicago, one which would last three years, he spent a season in Colorado, before making St. Louis his home for the last three and a half seasons. Now, at 32-years-old in a season which he's on pace for offensive numbers near career lows, racking up seven goals and 16 points through 43 games.

Saad was placed on waivers, Tuesday, clearing Wednesday, and in short order, it was announced he would be getting placed on unconditional waivers for the purpose of termination. With no desire to play in the American Hockey League, Saad forfeited the final year and a half of a five-year deal paying him $5.4-million per year. There was no team willing to eat the remaining money on his deal in claiming him on waivers, but now, he'll have numerous teams vying for his services at a significantly lower dollar amount. First, however, he'll go through unconditional waivers Thursday and clear Friday, then free to sign with any team.

<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6098294/2025/01/29/blues-brandon-saad-contract-nhl-free-agent/">The Athletic's Jeremy Rutherford</a> listed the Oilers, Toronto Maple Leafs, Vegas Golden Knights, Washington Capitals and Dallas Stars all as teams, but given his history with Bowman, a sure desire for another deep cup run, the Oilers getting to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, and the fact the team is looking to add, it seems like Saad is destined to don the Blue and Orange.

But does it make sense for the team?

Starting from the top, Saad's individual game isn't where it once was. His aforementioned offensive numbers have dipped at five-on-five to .78 goals per hour, .66 assists per hour and 1.44 points per hour across 541 minutes, or 12:35 per game. Those metrics, among 13 Oilers forwards to play this season not named Noah Philp or Drake Caggiula, would rank seventh, 10th and tied for ninth, respectively.

He's still shooting the puck lots, taking 7.87 shots on goal per hour, and generating quality looks with them, notching .83 individual expected goals per hour, numbers which would rank fourth and sixth among the aforementioned forwards. Motivated to prove the Blues wrong, if he's able to keep those numbers up or even improve on them to higher rates as he had even as recently as last year, he would be a boost to the Oilers' middle-six.

[caption id="attachment_168817" align="aligncenter" width="1024"]<img class="size-large wp-image-168817" src="http://publish.oilersnation.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/USATSI_25109480-1024x683.jpg" alt="" width="1024" height="683" /> Jan 3, 2025; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Blues left wing Brandon Saad (20) is congratulated by teammates after scoring his third goal for a hat trick against the Ottawa Senators during the third period at Enterprise Center. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images[/caption]

His underlying metrics don't jump off the table. The Blues have struggled to control the shot attempt share, scoring chance share, expected goal share and most importantly, the actual goal share, with him on the ice throughout his whole tenure in St. Louis at five-on-five. He's also been bit by bad luck this season, specifically, as the Blues shot just 7.39 percent with him on the ice and their goaltenders saved only 88.97 percent of the shots they faced. A 96.4 PDO is well below the league average 100.

His five-on-five linemates haven't been poor, as he's spent 195 minutes with Brayden Schenn, 160 with Robert Thomas, 154 with Jake Neighbours, 129 with Jordan Kyrou and 107 with Pavel Buchnevich as his five most common linemates this season. The problem, however, is each of these players have seen stronger shot attempt share, scoring chance share, expected goal share and actual goal share numbers away from Saad, than with him, beyond he and Buchnevich's expected goal share. Simply put: he's been a drag on his teammates this year.

Even looking back to last year, that wasn't the case, where more often than not, his five most common linemates had worse goal, expected goal and scoring chance numbers away from him than with him. Simply put: he was helping make his teammates better as recent as last year.

His Hockey Viz profile, meanwhile, suggests his game is actually better this year than last. In 2023-24 he had a -2.4 sG rating, a metric used to determine a players overall value and where their contributions slot him on the depth chart. That number had him as a low-end third-liner, while this year, it's at -1.9, closer to a high-end third-liner. He's driving play this season at a one percent rate above league average, but his defensive contributions are seven percent below league average this season, according to Hockey Viz.

The Oilers potentially dipping into the Blues' well wouldn't be the first time they did so this year, either, having claimed Kasperi Kapanen on waivers earlier in the season. He's been a solid, but unspectacular addition, who has chipped in goals and points at a higher rate than he did last year.

Kapanen and Saad aren't strangers to each other, either, having played 235 unspectacular minutes together at five-on-five. Without diving into the weeds, if the Oilers do sign Saad, they shouldn't see the ice together.

Saad doesn't have top-end speed to burn, ranking in the 53rd percentile, but he does have some jump in his step, ranking in the 77th percentile for speed bursts this season, according to NHL Edge. However, the Oilers as a whole rank in the 93rd and 96th percentile for each, respectively, so it's not as if they need more of it.

Bringing in Saad wouldn't be the worst option for the Oilers. There's the undeniable veteran element to him that this team clearly values, and much like with the signing of John Klingberg, it could offer a test run leading up to the March 7th trade deadline. It gives them a chance to see if he can find his game again, and if the answer is a no, time to find a suitable replacement.

<hr />

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QX_QCiZyIo&amp;list=PLRSWOpthKmdtmFOKQDd7TQdTU2KSKXYvX">DFO DFS Report</a>. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at <a href="http://www.x.com/zjlaing">@zjlaing</a>, or reached by email at zach@thenationnetwork.com.

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Brandon Saad might be destined to sign with the Oilers, but does it make sense?

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