There has been quite a lot of discussion regarding Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending tandem this season, and whether or not Stuart Skinner has the ability to backstop the Oilers to a Stanley Cup this season. This is a very fair concern to have. However, Edmonton’s recent offensive play has been just as worrisome.
In 2022-23, the Oilers led the entire NHL in goals. Their 3.97 goals per hour rate that season was the second highest by any team in a single season in the 21st century. In 2023-24, they saw a slight decrease, but they still remained third in the NHL in 5v5 goals per hour, just a smidge behind second place.
However, the team has now dropped all the way to 12th in the NHL in 5v5 goals per hour this season.
Overall, the Oilers have an exactly net-even goal differential at 5v5 this season thus far, allowing exactly 138 goals for and 138 goals against at the 66-game mark. That’s not an encouraging result for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations; for reference, they have ranked as a net positive in 5v5 goal differential in each of the prior four seasons. Edmonton was +40 (!) at 5-on-5 last season despite their horrendous start!
Eleven of Edmonton’s 38 wins this season have been 3-on-3 OT victories, and obviously, there is no 3v3 in the playoffs. Simply put, 5v5 scoring is an issue that the Oilers must figure out with the post-season just about a month away.
Now, using Natural Stat Trick’s With-Or-Without-You (WOWY) tool, it’s quite easy to see where Edmonton is specifically struggling the most in terms of 5v5 goal differential.
On the one hand, it is crystal clear that Leon Draisaitl is having an extraordinary season. With McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice, the Oilers hold an outstanding 62 percent goal differential, and even without McDavid on-ice, Draisaitl has still driven his team to an excellent 56 percent goal differential.
But away from Draisaitl, McDavid has been out-scored 25 to 37, equating to a horrendous 40 percent goal differential. The Oilers rank as a net negative without both of them on-ice as well, but ultimately, McDavid’s goal share away from Draisaitl has hurt the team the most.
At a glance, one could simply place the majority of the blame for Edmonton’s decreased scoring rates on McDavid’s individual struggles without Draisaitl this season. There’s no doubt that he has not been his usual dominant self this season.
However, the true answer to Edmonton’s scoring struggles is much more nuanced and complex than that.
Last season, McDavid averaged 0.92 goals per hour at 5-on-5, and it has dropped to 0.74 this season. But, Draisaitl averaged 0.72 G/60 last season, and has improved to 1.19. Look at it this way; in comparison to last season, Draisaitl’s increase in individual scoring this season has more than made up for McDavid’s decrease in scoring, and their combined 5v5 goal rate has actually improved, so the team’s results shouldn’t see that huge of a decline, right?
But, McDavid’s 5v5 primary assist rate has dropped from 1.56, to 0.97, a full 38% decrease. Despite Draisaitl’s outstanding season, even his primary assist rate at 5-on-5 has seen a slight decrease from 1.10 last season to 1.03 this season.
Thus, the primary reason for Edmonton’s scoring decline seems to be due to McDavid and Draisaitl’s linemates scoring at significantly lower rates, particularly the winger group.
Now, the Oilers have kept five of their wingers from their 2023-24 roster (including RNH), and acquired four new wingers (one of them in place of the currently injured Evander Kane). Let’s try to look at each of their individual scoring rates, starting with the new guys:
Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, and Ryan McLeod were Edmonton’s primary departures this past off-season. They, plus Evander Kane, averaged 0.8 goals per hour for the Oilers last season.
Edmonton’s new additions at wing were free agent signings Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, waiver claim Kasperi Kapanen, and trade acquisition Vasily Podkolzin. They have averaged 0.67 goals per hour for the Oilers this season.
So, we can already identify that part of the reason for their offensive decline seems to be their roster changes. Many, including myself, expected Viktor Arvidsson to be an upgrade on Warren Foegele, but that just hasn’t happened. What’s even more frustrating is that Jeff Skinner has scored at a strong rate, but has been frequently scratched by head coach Kris Knoblauch, further exacerbating this issue.
But, what about Edmonton’s returning wingers?
Compared to last season, both Connor Brown and Corey Perry have seen an increase in scoring. In particular, Corey Perry has been a pleasant surprise for the Oilers’ bottom-six. However, Janmark, RNH, and Hyman have all seen significant decreases, particularly Hyman, who has nearly seen his 5v5 scoring rate cut in half. In fairness, some regression for Hyman was likely inevitable; he wasn’t scoring 50+ goals every year.
But, there’s a very concerning trend that is evident here; each of Edmonton’s five returning wingers have averaged fewer expected goals per hour this season compared to last season. Put differently, each of them are generating fewer quality shots.
This connects to yet another potential reason; increased point shots from Edmonton’s defencemen.
This season, 36 percent of Edmonton’s shots at 5v5 have come from their defenceman, more than any other team in the NHL. Now, this is not inherently a bad thing for every team, but it does seem that way in Edmonton’s case. While they rank first in the league in percentage of shots taken from their defenceman, the shooting percentage from their defenceman ranks 28th; clearly, this strategy is not working.
Last season, the Oilers averaged roughly 32 shots per hour at 5v5, first in the league. This season, they’ve averaged 31 shots per hour, a marginal decrease, but still first in the league. So, the issue here isn’t shot volume.
Instead, it seems to be shot quality, as Edmonton’s xGF/60 has decreased from 3.35 to 2.87. This seems to be largely due to an increase in point shots from the defenders, and consequently less shots from the wingers in dangerous areas.
In summary, Edmonton’s offensive decline this season, particularly since the beginning of February, has occurred for a variety of reasons. Luckily, many of these reasons are fixable, such as the deployment of Jeff Skinner and the excessive point shots from the defencemen, but only time will tell if they end up being properly addressed.
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
