If there’s one thing you can guarantee for the 2024-2025 NHL season, it’s that Viktor Arvidsson will not lose to the Oilers in the first round of the playoffs for another consecutive year.
For the past three seasons, 31-year-old winger Viktor Arvidsson played for the Los Angeles Kings, who the Edmonton Oilers eliminated in round one of the playoffs in each of those seasons. On July 1st, Edmonton signed Arvidsson in free agency to a two-year contract worth four million annually.
If you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em.
Arvidsson is a significant addition to Edmonton’s natural right-wing depth, which was otherwise quite mediocre apart from Zach Hyman. The team’s lack of quality top-six wingers outside of the first line was evident in the 2024 playoffs.
One key factor in the Oilers’ ultimately losing in the Stanley Cup Finals was the performance of their second line, which scored just two goals in seven games. Of course, Leon Draisaitl’s reported rib and wrist injuries were probably the major reason for those struggles, but his subpar linemate quality must be mentioned.
With Hyman as a fixture on Connor McDavid’s wing, while Ryan Nugent-Hopkins spent the majority of his time as McDavid’s other winger, Draisaitl played with a rotating cast of wingers, none of which performed at the level of a bonafide top-six winger. Perhaps Draisaitl’s best winger on the second line in the playoffs was Dylan Holloway, who has nine career NHL goals.
“You look at Leon’s linemates throughout the season – they’re good players – but they’re not the same calibre as some other superstars get to play with,” said head coach Kris Knoblauch, two days following the cup finals.
A key objective for the Oilers heading into free agency was to find a top-six winger for Draisaitl. With the Arvidsson signing, alongside the other major signing of Jeff Skinner, Edmonton’s management has undoubtedly fulfilled that goal this off-season.
In this piece, I would like to specifically analyze and focus on Arvidsson, who is projected to be a staple on Draisaitl’s right wing in 2023-24. I believe there could be a lot of upside with this signing.
To begin, here is a glance at Arvidsson’s analytical profile from his past three seasons in Los Angeles:
In a nutshell, Arvidsson is a skilled, offensive second-line winger.
Unfortunately, Arvidsson played just 18 games in 2023-24, as his season was largely cut short due to a back injury. He did play 77 games the prior season, recording 26 goals and 59 points, while he scored 49 points in 66 games in 2021-22. In total, he has produced at a 63-point pace over the past three seasons in Los Angeles.
With five 20-goal seasons under his belt, one of which includes 34 goals in 58 games with Nashville in 2018-19, it’s reasonable to say Arvidsson is more of a scorer rather than a play-maker, but his passing abilities are sneaky good.
In the past three seasons, Arvidsson ranks in the 86th percentile in scoring chance assists per hour at 5-on-5; put differently, he completes more passes leading to scoring chances than 86 percent of the league’s forwards. He’s specifically quite strong at passing from behind the net, which could be a potentially dangerous combination with Draisaitl’s shot.
Overall, a key aspect of Arvidsson’s game is his ability to drive offence at 5-on-5. His isolated impact on generating even-strength on-ice scoring chances (RAPM xGF/60) ranks 45th among all forwards since 2021 and would rank fourth on the Oilers, only behind McDavid, Hyman and Draisaitl.
Arvidsson is not a particularly aggressive forechecker, nor is he an elite cycle player. Instead, Arvidsson’s offence is significantly driven by his speed and skill off the rush.
Arvidsson ranks 19th among all NHL forwards (96th percentile) in controlled zone entries per hour in the past three seasons, while additionally ranking 56th (89th percentile) in controlled entries leading to scoring chances per hour.
When it comes to shots off the rush per 60, Arvidsson ranks first in the entire league — no player in the NHL averages more shots on goal in transition than him.
Now, some may note that Arvidsson can be prone to taking low-quality rush shots from the perimeter, which I frequently noticed myself when closely observing the Oilers-Kings playoff games. It’s not exactly a preferable attribute. However, this is something characteristic of the Kings as a whole, as the team ranked 2nd in the league in rush shots per hour in 2023-24, but 20th in actual rush scoring chances per hour; with or without Arvidsson, Los Angeles was a team that often “spammed” low-percentage shots off the rush.
As such, I wonder if Arvidsson’s total rush shot volume is a bit inflated by LA’s style of play. I would expect his shot volume to decrease and his average shot quality to improve in Edmonton.
Regardless, what is evident is that Arvidsson thrives at moving the puck into the offensive zone with possession. Even despite his tendency to shoot low-quality rush shots, he remained as LA’s second-best player at generating quality rush chances, only behind Kevin Fiala.
Here is a compilation of some of Arvidsson’s rush goals in Los Angeles.
This is what encourages me the most about his potential stylistic fit on the second line.
Draisaitl can produce offence in a variety of ways, but at even strength, he is most dangerous in transition. Historically, Draisaitl has not produced appealing results with slower wingers who dump the puck in at high rates — instead, he has generally played best next to speedy, skilled forwards. Draisaitl would fit best next to someone who can get the puck to him in transition and capitalize off his passes in transition, and that is precisely what Arvidsson can be.
In my opinion, the optimal second-line for Edmonton should consist of Draisaitl, Arvidsson, and Dylan Holloway. Holloway adds an element of tenacious forechecking on that line, while his speed would be an excellent fit alongside those two.
If Holloway progresses in 2024-25, Edmonton has the potential to run an extremely dynamic forward core in transition. A line of Holloway, Draisaitl, and Arvidsson would be very difficult to defend off the rush, while the Oilers have the best rush player in the league on their other top-six line. It’s exciting to think about.
Overall, Arvidsson has produced at a very respectable rate of 1.91 points per hour at 5-on-5 in the past three seasons — for comparison, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins sits at 1.78. Here is how this ranks in contrast to some of the other top UFA wingers who were available on July 1:
(side note: Jeff Skinner’s production rates are outstanding, and my specific analysis on him will be released tomorrow)
Arvidsson generally compares well here. He obtained less money than Tyler Toffoli, Jake Debrusk, and Teuvo Teravainen, all while possessing a higher production rate at even strength. He’s certainly not a high-end talent like Steven Stamkos, but he’s firmly produced at a typical second-line rate.
Defensively at 5-on-5, Arvidsson’s impact is slightly below average, but it is not a massive issue in any sense. Arvidsson is neither a considerable contributor defensively, nor some concerning liability, and I would not expect him to have a significant overall defensive impact.
That said, zone exits are one specific defensive area where Arvidsson excels — he ranks 35th among all forwards in controlled exits per 60. Don’t expect Arvidsson to be heavily involved down low, but he is strong at carrying the puck out of the defensive zone and into the offensive zone, another area in which he complements Draisaitl quite well.
As for his impact on special teams, while Arvidsson does not regularly kill penalties, he is an effective player on the power play.
Twenty-four different skaters played a minimum of 30 minutes on the power-play for Los Angeles in the past three seasons, and interestingly, Arvidsson ranked first among those players in on-ice power-play goals per hour. Barring injuries, Arvidsson is not going to obtain significant time on Edmonton’s top power-play unit, but with Edmonton’s substantially improved forward depth, they could run an effective second unit for the first time in the Connor McDavid era. If so, Arvidsson could be a major contributor.
With everything in mind, it is easy to see why he could be a very useful player for Edmonton — however, the glaring red flag with Arvidsson is his injury history.
Arvidsson has played in the NHL since 2014, and has yet to play an entire 82-game season. As noted earlier, Arvidsson played just 18 games this past season due to a back injury, causing him to miss the entire start of the season up until February 15.
Alongside his questionable durability, Arvidsson is on the wrong side of 30. The downsides to this signing are evident.
But, the signing is not exactly a high-risk one. $4M is perfectly fair value for a player of Arvidsson’s calibre, and the term is only two years. It’s a very reasonable bet to make on a guy who could be a splendid fit next to Draisaitl.
I believe there is a lot of offensive potential for Arvidsson in Edmonton because the offensive environment and limitations of LA’s system must be noted.
Arvidsson played on a team that ran the infamous 1-3-1 NZ forecheck for the past three years, resulting in significantly more low-event hockey at 5-on-5. LA’s system as a whole caused their players to forecheck far less often in the offensive zone, and prioritize quantity over quality when it came to offence off the rush as mentioned earlier, leading to some of the worst finishing results in the league.
Apr 9, 2024; Anaheim, California, USA; Los Angeles Kings center Phillip Danault (24) passes the puck to right wing Viktor Arvidsson (33) during the first period at Honda Center. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
This upcoming season, Arvidsson will move to a much more dynamic offensive team, a group that can generate plenty of high-danger chances off the rush, forecheck and cycle. Arvidsson’s most common linemate in LA was Philip Danault, with whom he played 77 percent of his TOI; in Edmonton, Arvidsson’s most common linemate is expected to be Leon Draisaitl, a substantial offensive improvement.
While I would expect Arvidsson’s overall production to see a slight decrease due to significantly less power-play time, there is the opportunity for a considerable uptick in his even-strength production.
Warren Foegele, Draisaitl’s most common winger in 2023-24, produced 37 points at 5v5 in 82 games. Arvidsson produced 31 points at 5v5 in 66 games in 2021-22, a 39-point pace over 82 games. If Arvidsson is healthy, hitting 40+ points at 5v5 next to Draisaitl is not an unreasonable expectation; for reference, a list of players that produced around ~40 5v5 points in 2023-24 include Sam Reinhart, Mark Scheifele, Jason Robertson, and Aleksander Barkov, which is quite strong company.
Consequently, the Arvidsson signing may have risks, but there is a lot of upside for him on the second line. I like the bet that Edmonton’s management has made.
In the 2023-24 regular-season, Draisaitl held a 58 percent goal differential at 5-on-5 away from McDavid on line two – for reference, 2024 Hart Trophy winner Nathan MacKinnon was at 55 percent away from Mikko Rantanen. Impressive considering the quality of linemates Draisaitl played with.
As the 2024-25 season approaches, I look forward to seeing what Draisaitl can accomplish over a full season next to bonafide top-six wingers, one of which will definitely be Arvidsson.
“Obviously, that’s a huge opportunity for me to play with such a great player,” said Arvidsson in response to a question about potentially playing on Draisaitl’s wing, shortly after the signing. “The team itself is built really well, and like I said in the beginning, they have something going for them. I feel like they were really close this year, and I hope I can help the team move even further.”
“I’m happy to be an Oiler.”
*All data in the article via EvolvingHockey, Natural Stat Trick, and AllThreeZones
Find me on Twitter (@NHL_Sid)
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